Andrew Bolt on Australian Drought

Andrew Bolt continues to express his viewpoint on everything Climate Change. He countered the argument that the drought we are currently experiencing (I’m writing this on 2nd September 2018) is made worse by Climate Change.

He used a graph of Australian rainfall since 1900 from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) Here.

This showed that rainfall in Australia had been increasing for last 117 years, therefore the Climate Change scientists predictions of less rainfall were false.

He also used New South Wales rainfall statistics to prove the same thing. Here (Scroll down)

His claim that Australian and NSW rainfall had increased since 1900 is completely accurate based on the BOM data……..

However, let’s dig down a bit further……...

The Australia wide situation is a little different if you start your analysis from different points of time.

If your starting point is 1970 there is still an increase but a less steep incline. Graph 4

If your starting point is 2000 there is almost flatlining of rainfall. Graph 5

The NSW situation is a bit different, and could well be used to back up the argument that climate change has affected the rainfall in this state in a negative way though as this article here shows the issue is, at the very least, complicated.

Graph 6 shows a decline in rainfall in NSW since 1950.

Graph 7 shows a decline in rainfall in NSW since 1970.

Graph 8 shows an increase in rainfall in NSW since 1980, bucking the trend.

Graph 9. The downward trend doesn’t start again until 2010 is used as a starting point. 

I think that the rainfall trends in NSW are a bit flaky to be calling it proof of future trends in rainfall.

For me it will take a few more decades to prove this downward trend will continue.

However, the temperature increase that has occurred is a part of the equation. I think it would have an impact on drought and that complicates the simple rainfall statistics.



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